My friends at Goldman Sachs have just issued an investor note: ‘Lithium is the New Gasoline.’
Goldman are saying that the unique properties of lithium and its use in portable energy storage (batteries) position lithium to “be a key enabler of the electric car revolution and replace gasoline as the primary source of transportation fuel.”
It makes interesting reading, and I summarise the main points for you here.
- Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised for a sustained period of growth. Goldman’s autos team estimate 22% EV penetration by 2025.
- EV adoption represents a huge and generally untapped market for lithium suppliers.
- The greatest opportunity for lithium and lithium-ion batteries is yet to come in the form of multiple future transportation applications. EV development could pave the way for further developments and demand, including electric trucks, trains and aeroplanes.
- Goldman estimate that if EVs achieve a further 1% penetration of the global car market, it would increase lithium demand by 70,000 metric tonnes of LCE/year = roughly half of current global demand for lithium.
- Lithium demand for all EV applications could grow more than 11x by 2025.
- $150/kWh is the level widely seen as the tipping point for broad commercialization. Goldman believe this is feasible by 2020.
I am in absolutely no doubt that lithium is the future.